Skill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men — by Christopher R. Taber, Nicolas A. Roys

This paper studies the effect of the change in occupational structure on wages for low skilled men. We develop a model of occupational choice in which workers have multi-dimensional skills that are exploited differently across different occupations. We allow for a rich specification of technological change which has heterogenous effects on different occupations and different … Read moreSkill Prices, Occupations, and Changes in the Wage Structure for Low Skilled Men — by Christopher R. Taber, Nicolas A. Roys

Partisanship and Survey Refusal — by Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, Darren Lubotsky

Survey refusal in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has tripled over the last decade. This rise coincides with the emergence of rhetoric, largely from the political right, questioning the accuracy and integrity of government statistics. We examine how support for the Tea Party and the Republican party have affected CPS refusal rates and whether households … Read morePartisanship and Survey Refusal — by Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, Darren Lubotsky

Did Trump’s Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? — by Emily J. Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, Davin Chor

We find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only partially mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans … Read moreDid Trump’s Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? — by Emily J. Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, Davin Chor

The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns — by Josh Davis, Alan M. Taylor

Research finds strong links between credit booms and macroeconomic outcomes like financial crises and output growth. Are impacts also seen in financial asset prices? We document this robust and significant connection for the first time using a large sample of historical data for many countries. Credit boom periods tend to be followed by unusually low … Read moreThe Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns — by Josh Davis, Alan M. Taylor

Effects of Mandatory Energy Efficiency Disclosure in Housing Markets — by Erica Myers, Steven L. Puller, Jeremy D. West

Mandatory disclosure policies are increasingly prevalent despite sparse evidence that they improve market outcomes. We study the effects of requiring home sellers to provide buyers with certified audits of residential energy efficiency. Using similar nearby homes as a comparison group, we find this requirement increases price capitalization of energy efficiency and encourages energy-saving residential investments. … Read moreEffects of Mandatory Energy Efficiency Disclosure in Housing Markets — by Erica Myers, Steven L. Puller, Jeremy D. West

How Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality? — by Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell

The US has long incentivized retirement saving in 401(k) and similar retirement accounts by permitting workers to defer taxes on contributions, levying them instead when retirees withdraw funds in retirement. This paper develops a dynamic life cycle model to show how and whether ‘Rothification’ – that is, taxing 401(k) contributions rather than payouts – would … Read moreHow Would 401(k) ‘Rothification’ Alter Saving, Retirement Security, and Inequality? — by Vanya Horneff, Raimond Maurer, Olivia S. Mitchell

How Do NYPD Officers Respond to Terror Threats? — by Steven F. Lehrer, Louis Pierre Lepage

Using data from the New York City Police Department’s Stop-and-Frisk program, we evaluate the impact of a specific terrorist attack threat from Al Qaeda on policing behavior in New York City. We find that after the Department of Homeland Security raised the alert level in response to this threat, people categorized as “Other” by the … Read moreHow Do NYPD Officers Respond to Terror Threats? — by Steven F. Lehrer, Louis Pierre Lepage

Income Growth and its Distribution from Eisenhower to Obama: The Growing Importance of In-Kind Transfers (1959-2016) — by James Elwell, Kevin Corinth, Richard V. Burkhauser

Using Census Bureau estimates of the market value of in-kind transfers and Current Population Survey (ASEC-CPS) data over the period 1979 to 2007, Burkhauser et al. (2012b) construct measures of income and its distribution. We extend their work forward to 2016 and back to 1967 using ASEC-CPS data and decennial Census data for 1959. With … Read moreIncome Growth and its Distribution from Eisenhower to Obama: The Growing Importance of In-Kind Transfers (1959-2016) — by James Elwell, Kevin Corinth, Richard V. Burkhauser

Voting for Democracy: Chile’s Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation — by Ethan Kaplan, Fernando Saltiel, Sergio S. Urzúa

This paper assesses if voting for democracy affects long-term electoral participation. We study the effects of participating in Chile’s 1988 plebiscite, which determined whether democracy would be reinstated after a 15-year long military dictatorship. Taking advantage of individual-level voting data for upwards of 13 million Chileans, we implement an age-based RD design comparing long run … Read moreVoting for Democracy: Chile’s Plebiscito and the Electoral Participation of a Generation — by Ethan Kaplan, Fernando Saltiel, Sergio S. Urzúa

Climate Change, Operating Flexibility and Corporate Investment Decisions — by Chen Lin, Thomas Schmid, Michael S. Weisbach

Extreme temperatures lead to large fluctuations in electricity demand and wholesale prices of electricity, which in turn affects the optimal production process for firms to use. Using a large international sample of planned power plant projects, we measure the way that electric utilities’ investment decisions depend on the frequency of extreme temperatures. We find that … Read moreClimate Change, Operating Flexibility and Corporate Investment Decisions — by Chen Lin, Thomas Schmid, Michael S. Weisbach

Magnification of the ‘China Shock’ Through the U.S. Housing Market — by Yuan Xu, Hong Ma, Robert C. Feenstra

The ‘China shock’ operated in part through the housing market, and that is an important reason why the China shock was as big as it was. If housing prices had not responded at all to the China shock, then the total employment effect of the China shock would have been reduced by more than one-half. … Read moreMagnification of the ‘China Shock’ Through the U.S. Housing Market — by Yuan Xu, Hong Ma, Robert C. Feenstra

Intergenerational Health Mobility: Magnitudes and Importance of Schools and Place — by Jason Fletcher, Katie M. Jajtner

Nascent research suggests intergenerational health mobility may be relatively high and non-genetic factors may make room for policy intervention. This project broadens this direction by considering heterogeneous intergenerational health mobility in spatial and contextual patterns. With 14,797 parent-child pairs from a school-based representative panel survey of adolescents (Add Health), this study finds large spatial variation … Read moreIntergenerational Health Mobility: Magnitudes and Importance of Schools and Place — by Jason Fletcher, Katie M. Jajtner

A Journal-Based Replication of “Being Chosen to Lead” — by Allan Drazen, Anna Dreber Almenberg, Erkut Y. Ozbay, Erik Snowberg

Recent large-scale replications of social science experiments provide important information on the reliability of experimental research. Unfortunately, there exist no mechanisms to ensure replications are done. We propose such a mechanism: journal-based replication, in which the publishing journal contracts for a replication between acceptance and publication. We discuss what we learned from a proof-of-concept journal-based … Read moreA Journal-Based Replication of “Being Chosen to Lead” — by Allan Drazen, Anna Dreber Almenberg, Erkut Y. Ozbay, Erik Snowberg

Crowding In with Impure Altruism: Theory and Evidence from Volunteerism in National Parks — by Matthew Kotchen, Katherine R.H. Wagner

This paper makes three contributions to the literature on private provision of public goods. First, we identify limitations of the frequently used specification test that distinguishes between the standard models of pure and impure altruism based on the extent of crowding out. While the literature takes as given the result that crowding out should be … Read moreCrowding In with Impure Altruism: Theory and Evidence from Volunteerism in National Parks — by Matthew Kotchen, Katherine R.H. Wagner

Listing Advantages Around the World — by Kenichi Ueda, Somnath Sharma

Using the firm-level data of 33 countries over 10 years (from 2008-2017), we find that the listed firms, on average, have lower marginal products of capital (measured by return on assets) than the unlisted firms in many countries. This implies that the listed firms face less financial constraints. Moreover, we investigate the institutional factors that … Read moreListing Advantages Around the World — by Kenichi Ueda, Somnath Sharma

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents — by Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, Huiyu Li

Growth has fallen in the U.S., while firm concentration and profits have risen. Meanwhile, labor’s share of national income is down, mostly due to the rising market share of low labor share firms. We propose a theory for these trends in which the driving force is falling firm-level costs of spanning multiple markets, perhaps due … Read moreA Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents — by Philippe Aghion, Antonin Bergeaud, Timo Boppart, Peter J. Klenow, Huiyu Li

Networking Frictions in Venture Capital, and the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship — by Sabrina T. Howell, Ramana Nanda

Exploiting random variation in the number of venture capitalist (VC) judges assigned to panels at Harvard Business School’s New Venture Competition (NVC) between 2000 and 2015, we find that exposure to more VC judges increases male participants’ chances of founding a VC-backed startup after HBS much more than this exposure increases female participants’ chances. A … Read moreNetworking Frictions in Venture Capital, and the Gender Gap in Entrepreneurship — by Sabrina T. Howell, Ramana Nanda

A Phillips Curve for the Euro Area — by Laurence M. Ball, Sandeep Mazumder

This paper asks whether a textbook Phillips curve can explain the behavior of core inflation in the euro area. A critical feature of the analysis is that we measure core inflation with the weighted median of industry inflation rates, which is less volatile than the common measure of inflation excluding food and energy prices. We … Read moreA Phillips Curve for the Euro Area — by Laurence M. Ball, Sandeep Mazumder

Rules without Commitment: Reputation and Incentives — by Alessandro Dovis, Rishabh Kirpalani

This paper studies the optimal design of rules in a dynamic model when there is a time inconsistency problem and uncertainty about whether the policy maker can commit to follow the rule ex post. The policy maker can either be a commitment type, which can always commit to follow rules, or an optimizing type, which … Read moreRules without Commitment: Reputation and Incentives — by Alessandro Dovis, Rishabh Kirpalani

Tax Prices and Charitable Giving: Projected Changes in Donations Under the 2017 TCJA — by Jonathan Meer, Benjamin A. Priday

We estimate the tax price elasticity of charitable giving using newly-available data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics spanning 2001-2017. We find that households that always itemize are less sensitive to changes in the tax treatment of donations than house-holds that switch itemizing status. We apply these results to the provisions of the Tax … Read moreTax Prices and Charitable Giving: Projected Changes in Donations Under the 2017 TCJA — by Jonathan Meer, Benjamin A. Priday

How Do Economic Shocks Affect Family Health Care Spending Burdens? — by Irina B. Grafova, Alan C. Monheit, Rizie Kumar

We use data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) for the years 2004 – 2012 to examine the impact of economic shocks on the family’s out-of-pocket health care spending burden. We define this burden as the share of family income devoted to out-of-pocket health care spending. In contrast to static, cross-sectional analyses, our study … Read moreHow Do Economic Shocks Affect Family Health Care Spending Burdens? — by Irina B. Grafova, Alan C. Monheit, Rizie Kumar

Political Dynasties, Term Limits and Female Political Empowerment: Evidence from the Philippines — by Julien Labonne, Sahar Parsa, Pablo Querubín

We investigate the effect of term limits on female political representation. Using data from Philippine municipalities where strict term limits have been in place since 1987, we show that term limits led to a large increase in the number of women running and winning in mayoral elections. However, we show that this increase is entirely … Read morePolitical Dynasties, Term Limits and Female Political Empowerment: Evidence from the Philippines — by Julien Labonne, Sahar Parsa, Pablo Querubín

Alibaba Singles’ Day sales: $23bn in first 9 hrs

Alibaba Group Holding Inc on Monday said sales for its annual Singles’ Day shopping blitz hit 158.31 billion yuan ($22.63 billion) in first 9 hours, up 25% from 126.72 billion yuan at the same point last year. Akin to Black Friday & Cyber Monday in the US, Singles’ Day has been promoted as a shopping … Read moreAlibaba Singles’ Day sales: $23bn in first 9 hrs

Mexico cartel ambush: American father whose relatives were killed says he’s leaving the country

published 2019-11-10 20:48:48 by Bradford Betz An American father whose family members were killed in a brutal ambush attack in northern Mexico last week says he’s leaving the country because “you don’t get justice too much in Mexico.” David Langford made the comments during an interview with ABC News’ “World News Tonight” that aired Sunday. … Read moreMexico cartel ambush: American father whose relatives were killed says he’s leaving the country

Did The End Of The World Just Get Postponed?

Something happened late last week, which superficially might be attributed to positive news on the US China trade talks (later downplayed by Trump) but it was wider and more significant than that. In recent months many traders have been positioning for a significant market correction, and potentially a US or global recession. Thus, risk stocks … Read moreDid The End Of The World Just Get Postponed?

Job uncertainty rises for spouses of H-1B visa holders

The United States Court of Appeals in its recent order has concurred with the views of ‘Save Jobs USA’ that granting of work permits (employment authorisations) to spouses of H-1B visa holders increases competition for American jobs. As spouses are able to work, it provides an incentive to the H-1B visa holders to continue to … Read moreJob uncertainty rises for spouses of H-1B visa holders

Released Lula in for Greatest Fight of His Life, by Pepe Escobar

He’s back. With a bang. Only two days after his release from a federal prison in Curitiba, southern Brazil, following a narrow 6×5 decision by the Supreme Court, former President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva delivered a fiery, 45-minute long speech in front of the Metal Workers Union in Sao Bernardo, outside of Sao Paulo,… … Read moreReleased Lula in for Greatest Fight of His Life, by Pepe Escobar

A Holocaust of Biblical Proportions, by Laurent Guyénot

Holocaust is term taken from the Hebrew Bible (in the Greek translation), designating the religious sacrifice of animals that are burned completely on an altar. The first holocaust recorded in the Bible is performed by Noah in Genesis 8. In a fit of rage, Yahweh has said to himself: “I shall rid the surface of… … Read moreA Holocaust of Biblical Proportions, by Laurent Guyénot

Is the ‘Mother of All Bubbles’ About to Pop?, by Ron Paul

When the New York Federal Reserve began pumping billions of dollars a day into the repurchasing (repo) markets (the market banks use to make short-term loans to each other) in September, they said this would only be necessary for a few weeks. Yet, last Wednesday, almost two months after the Fed’s initial intervention, the New… … Read moreIs the ‘Mother of All Bubbles’ About to Pop?, by Ron Paul

Israel Is Silencing the Last Voices Trying to Stop Abuses Against Palestinians, by Jonathan Cook

It has been a week of appalling abuses committed by Israeli soldiers in the West Bank – little different from the other 2,670 weeks endured by Palestinians since the occupation began in 1967. The difference this past week was that several entirely unexceptional human rights violations that had been caught on film went viral on… … Read moreIsrael Is Silencing the Last Voices Trying to Stop Abuses Against Palestinians, by Jonathan Cook

Feminism and Immigrant-Invaders Destroyed Europe, by Paul Craig Roberts

In Sweden the rape of white Swedish women by black immigrant-invaders never stops. In the latest outrage four black Eritreans forced a 13 year old Swedish girl into a bathroom and took turns raping her while filming the gang rape. According to the news report, the vaginal rape was “preceded by violence consisting of at… … Read moreFeminism and Immigrant-Invaders Destroyed Europe, by Paul Craig Roberts